YouGov’s Final MRP – Politics UK Analysis

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YouGov’s final MRP was released at 5pm today, and here are their latest projections for tomorrow’s general election:

🔴 LAB – 431

🔵 CON – 102

🟠 LDM – 72

🟢 GRN – 2

🟡 SNP – 18

🟣 RFM – 3

🟢 PC – 3

⚪️ IND – 0 (excl. speaker)

The moment is almost here! It’s been a long six weeks for political parties across the UK, and with less than 12 hours until polls open up and down the country, it’s time to see if all their hard work is forecasted to have paid off.

A huge Labour majority has been on the cards since day one of this election period, with no estimation that wouldn’t blow their 2019 result right out of the water. YouGov’s final MRP sets them at 431 seats, 105 seats more than the 326 needed for an outright majority, and 229 more than the party won in 2019. There’s no doubt that this would be a phenomenal result for Sir Keir Starmer, surpassing the 418 seats won by Sir Tony Blair in the 1997 election. Interestingly, there’s quite a discrepancy between the size of Labour’s ‘supermajority’, with Survation predicting 484 seats in their final MRP, and Electoral Calculus giving them 470 in theirs. So it’s safe to say that YouGov is airing on the slightly more moderate side with their predictions for Labour.

Set to come out of tomorrow rather sore, the Conservative Party has been predicted to win just 102 seats by YouGov, down 263 from their strong 2019 result at the hands of Boris Johnson. This is a significant fall for the party, with prominent figures, such as Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, and even former-PM Liz Truss, on track to be unseated by Labour. It’s unlikely that such a loss won’t come as too much of a surprise to the Conservatives, with Sunak seemingly already conceding defeat and turning his attention to ‘stopping the supermajority’ instead. Again, this MRP is predicting a loss of lesser harshness for the Conservatives, with Survation forecasting just 64 seats, and Electoral Calculus just 61.

It’s looking to be a good night for the Liberal Democrats, with Ed Davey’s party forecasted a gain of 61 seats – which would put 72 Lib Dem MPs in the Commons next week. It’s probably been a more trying six weeks for Davey than it has other party leaders, having left no crazy campaign stunt untried (except from launching himself out of a cannon perhaps). One thing’s for certain, we’re definitely going to miss using the phrase “in true Ed Davey style” here at Politics UK. The headline for the Lib Dems tomorrow is whether they can tip the balance and become the main opposition party. YouGov is predicting they won’t, forecasting the Conservatives 30 more seats, and Survation says they’ll fall short by just three; however, Electoral Calculus has forecasted them 71 seats, 10 more than the Conservatives, which would comfortably put Davey front and centre on the opposition benches next week.

The Green Party has been clear from the off that they’ve selected four target seats, all of which they have every confidence they can win. One of these seats, Brighton Pavilion, is already held by the Greens; meanwhile, the remaining three seats, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire, would all be gains for Denyer and Ramsay’s party. YouGov has predicted the party a moderate forecast of two seats: retaining Brighton and gaining Bristol from Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire. Meanwhile, both Survation and Electoral Calculus have also predicted a gain in Waveney Valley, which is a new seat due to boundary changes. It’s likely that a key gain for the party will be a stark rise in second-place results, following quite an impressive set of local election results earlier this year.

It could be a trying night for the SNP, who are forecasted just 18 seats – a loss of 30 in comparison to their 2019 result. This would mean the loss of almost all of their 2019 gains from Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives. New leader, John Swinney, has already anticipated a tough set of results and vowed he won’t resign on Friday morning, citing the party’s rocky leadership changes and a resultant sense of distrust from the Scottish public. Labour is set to regain a lot of the seats they held pre-2019, which would give them a relative majority in Holyrood. Survation has forecasted just 10 seats for the SNP, while Electoral Calculus has given them 15.

Reform UK has been a thorn in the side of pollsters over the last six weeks, being very difficult to poll considering they didn’t exist (in their current form) in 2019. Nonetheless, YouGov has forecasted they’ll win three seats, those being Ashfield, Great Yarmouth and Clacton. This would put Nigel Farage, Lee Anderson and Rupert Lowe in the commons next week, but would see the party chairman, Richard Tice, and deputy leaders, Dr David Bull and Ben Habib all fall short of a victory. There are huge discrepancies in Reform projections, with YouGov once again landing at the moderate end; Survation has forecasted seven seats for the party, as has Electoral Calculus.

All three pollsters are projecting three seats for Plaid Cymru, a loss of one seat from 2019. These three seats are set to be Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Ceredigion Preseli and Caerfyrddin, which all fall on the Welsh west coast.

Some key things to note from the YouGov MRP:

• Jeremy Corbyn is forecasted to lose his seat in Islington North to Praful Nargund, the Labour candidate.
• George Galloway is forecasted to lose his seat in Rochadale to Paul Waugh, the Labour candidate. In fact, The Workers Party is projected to win zero seats.
• There are zero predicted Conservative seats in inner-London, and just two in all of London, those being Finchley & Golders Green and Old Bexley & Sidcup.
• Except from Hazel Grove and Cheadle, Labour are forecasted to win the entirety of the North West.
• Conservative victory is focused around the South and East coasts; however, huge Labour gains are predicted across Norfolk and Suffolk.
• Faiza Shaheen, Leanne Mohamad and Akhmed Yakoob aren’t predicted to win their seats, with Labour projected to win all three.

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